Simulating the Season: 2025 MLS Cup Probabilities by DSA Labs
By Scott Krotee
Simulating the Season: 2025 MLS Cup Probabilities by DSA Labs
Who's most likely to lift the Philip F. Anschutz Trophy this December?
While betting markets lean on odds from sportsbooks, our League Simulator at DSA Labs takes a different approach — running thousands of full-season simulations powered by our team power rankings and match prediction engine.
Every simulation plays out each remaining regular-season match and full playoff bracket, factoring in team strength, home advantage, and variance from game to game. The result? True probability-based forecasts — not just lines or opinions.
2025 MLS Cup — Data-Driven Championship Outlook
| Team | Table Winner % | Playoff Champion % | Table Winner Odds | Playoff Champion Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union | 23.9% | 21.6% | +318 | +363 |
| Inter Miami | 20.9% | 15.7% | +378 | +537 |
| FC Cincinnati | 15.9% | 13.9% | +529 | +619 |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 11.0% | 9.8% | +809 | +920 |
| San Diego FC | 8.0% | 7.2% | +1150 | +1289 |
| Charlotte FC | 4.3% | 5.3% | +2226 | +1787 |
| Columbus Crew | 3.4% | 4.7% | +2841 | +2028 |
| NYCFC | 2.0% | 4.2% | +4900 | +2281 |
| LAFC | 3.4% | 4.1% | +2841 | +2339 |
| Minnesota United | 2.5% | 3.4% | +3900 | +2841 |
*Full simulation results available at dsa-labs.com/rankings/simulator
How It Works
Our simulator uses the same modeling framework behind DSA Labs' Match Predictor and Power Rankings, producing real-time estimates of win probability for every fixture. From there, it runs thousands of simulated seasons, using a Monte Carlo approach to capture the randomness and streaks that define real competition.
Each iteration awards points (3-1-0) for wins, draws, and losses across a double round-robin format, determines final standings, and then plays out the playoffs in a single-elimination bracket. In the knockout rounds, draws are converted to win probabilities based on the same model logic.
Why the Numbers Differ
- Table Winner % rewards consistency across an entire season.
- Playoff Champion % captures variance — one bad night can end even the best run.
- Top Seeds Benefit from home-field advantage and easier matchups, but upsets remain part of the model's DNA.
Updating in Real Time
The simulator recalculates every week as new results and power-rank data feed into the system — updating probabilities and implied odds dynamically. It's not just predicting who's hot today, but what that form means for where the league might end up.
Explore the Simulator
Fans, coaches, and analysts can now explore league-by-league simulations — from MLS to NCAA, EPL, and beyond. Run your own full-season projections: dsa-labs.com/rankings/simulator
Ready to dive deeper?
Explore our full suite of analytics tools including Match Predictions, Power Rankings, and League Simulations for over 50 leagues worldwide.